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The Alma Mater Bowl

Kenneth Shouler
From the Print Edition:
Don Johnson, Mar/Apr 02

There isn't enough Mylanta in the world to cure me of college bowl sickness. This malady creeps up in my stomach once a year when I rediscover that there are more bowls than cereals to put them in. The past bowl season offered up no fewer than 25 bowl games in 17 days. 'Twas the season to be inundated. Worse yet, the Bowl Championship Series, while ultimately deciding a national champion, could have left the whole college scene in a mess. Fortunately, the one game that really counted among those 25 -- the Rose Bowl contest between Miami and Nebraska on January 3 -- ended not only with a clear winner, but a clear-cut national champion. We were lucky this time.

The solution to this madness? We need a playoff. A genuine playoff between the top teams would decide the winners. Only, in my series I want to change things. Since I regard performance in the pros as more significant than college performance, I want to know which colleges would win an All-Star Game using only those players they've put in the pros.

To that end, we set up an eight-team championship series in which each of the seven games counts. Notice that in the NCAA Bowl Championship Series, the top eight teams don't actually play one another. That is, after Miami won the Rose Bowl, it was declared No.1 without having had to play the other six contestants. Imagine if this happened in golf or basketball seedings! Should Tiger Woods be declared No.1 in the Masters for just beating the second-ranked player in the tournament? Then why play the rest of the Bowl Championship games? Just to sell tickets -- and products -- and make some money for television?

Here we will play the games using a computer simulation to run an eight-team, single-elimination tournament. The teams will comprise current National Football League players, and the simulation will be based on the players' performance in the pros during the 2000 season, because we had full-season stats to rely on. In cases of some outstanding rookies for the 2001 season, such as Santana Moss of the New York Jets, we fudged a little bit and used 2000 college stats. The other benefit of a computer simulation? You don't have to sit through names like The Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl, the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl or the Fed Ex Orange Bowl. Who invented these titles? An ad writer on a binge?

We had wanted to kick this off with a field comprised of the top-12-ranked colleges by the number of players they put in the NFL. But four of these 12 teams were eliminated before the first coin flip because of roster holes. Those eliminated are Nebraska, Ohio State, Florida and Georgia. I'm not doing this to be mean-spirited or because I want to aggravate the fans of those teams. Nebraska has to go because it doesn't have a single quarterback or wide receiver on any of the 31 NFL rosters. Teams have won games, even Super Bowls, with poor quarterbacks. But you'd be hard pressed to find a team that has won with no quarterback. Ohio State? It's out for less obvious reasons: it lacks a center, a guard and a offensive tackle in a pro uniform. Florida can't make the tournament either, as it would be playing without a linebacker, strong safety and free safety. Georgia gets the boot since it lacks a strong and free safety.

That leaves a strong field of eight, seeded by the number of players each college put in the pros: Florida State (41), Notre Dame (41), Miami, FL (37), Michigan (37), Texas A & M (34), Penn State (31), Tennessee (29) and the University of Southern California (28). Hence the pairings are as follows: in one bracket, the winner of USC versus Florida State will play the winner of Texas A & M versus Michigan. In the other bracket, the victor of Tennessee versus Notre Dame will take on the winner of Penn State versus Miami.

In case you were wondering, there's nothing mysterious about a computer simulation. Since the process is grounded in statistics that measure performance, it is more objective than polling. You start by entering the rosters and the relevant numbers for each player. These statistics include a mix of the obvious and the complex -- like yards per attempt for runners and quarterbacks, but also blocking, tackling, break-away ability and other player tendencies. If the passing statistics of quarterbacks like Kurt Warner and Kordell Stewart were similar, the computer will still make distinctions between a pocket passer like Warner and an effective scrambler like Stewart. Likewise, the simulation will treat differently punishing backs that run between the tackles, such as Jerome Bettis, and slashing runners like Edgerrin James, who can run wide. It is this numerical subtlety that makes the results so true to reality, or at least our manufactured reality.

Since these are one-time All-Star games, the computer couldn't analyze what a team's historic tendencies are, say, on third-and-2 -- is it running, passing, changing zone coverage, making personnel substitutions? -- or how often it employs gimmick plays, or whether first-and-10 is a passing or running down. Rather, the computer had to analyze the talent of each All-Star squad and come up with lineups and strategies based on comparisons to teams of comparable skill throughout NFL history.

Once the button is pushed, there is no digital equivalent of thermonuclear war. Nothing like the whirring of machines and blinking of lights that accompanied Frankenstein's birth, either. The simulation takes a matter of minutes to go through all seven games. It generates a complete play-by-play report -- usually 150 to 175 plays per game -- and a box score. All games are played on a neutral site.

Let the games begin.



A ROSTER OF THE PLAYERS

 

These rosters consist of players from each college who were on active rosters in 2001. Their performances from their 2000 season were used in the computer simulated games.

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

Quarterbacks: Brad Johnson, Chris Weinke
Running Backs: Zack Crockett, Warrick Dunn, Travis Minor
Receivers/Tight Ends: Laveranues Coles, Ron Dugans, Marvin Minnis, Peter Warrick
Offensive Line: Char-ron Dorsey, Todd Fordham, Walter Jones, Kevin Long, Tra Thomas
Defensive Line: Tony Bryant, Jerry Johnson, Jamal Reynolds, Orpheus Roye, Corey Simon, Larry Smith, Greg Spires, Reinard Wilson
Linebackers: Brian Allen, Derrick Brooks, Peter Boulware, Sam Cowart, Henri Crockett, Deon Humphrey, Marvin Jones, Tommy Polley
Defensive Backs: Terrell Buckley, Devin Bush, LeRoy Butler, Tay Cody, Mario Edwards, Corey Fuller, Derrick Gibson, Dexter Jackson, Samari Rolle
Kickers: Sebastian Janikowski, Scott Player

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

Quarterbacks: Steve Beuerlein, Jarious Jackson, Rick Mirer
Running Backs: Jerome Bettis, Autry Denson, Marc Edwards, Ricky Watters
Receivers/Tight Ends: Tim Brown, Jabari Holloway, Raghib Ismail, Dan O'Leary
Offensive Line: Mike Doughty, Mike Gandy, Luke Petitgout, Tim Ridder, Mike Rosenthal, Tim Ruddy, Dusty Zeigler
Defensive Line: Bertrand Berry, Junior Bryant, Jim Flanigan, Oliver Gibson, Paul Grasmanis, Lance Legree, Renaldo Wynn, Bryant Young
Linebackers: Anthony Denman, Bobbie Howard, Scott Kowalkowski, Kory Minor
Defensive Backs: Jeff Burris, Tom Carter, Tony Driver, Deveron Harper, Todd Lyght, Allen Rossum, Bobby Taylor, Brock Williams, Shawn Wooden
Kickers: John Carney, Craig Hentrich, Hunter Smith

MIAMI HURRICANES

Quarterback: Vinny Testaverde
Running Backs: Donnell Bennett, James Jackson, Edgerrin James, Derrick Harris, Nick Williams
Receivers/Tight Ends: Bubba Franks, Jammi German, Andre King, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne
Offensive Line: Kerlin Blaise, Mondriel Fulcher, Richard Mercier, Leon Searcy, Kipp Vickers
Defensive Line: Michael Boireau, Kenny Holmes, Kenard Lang, Damione Lewis, Warren Sapp
Linebackers: Jessie Armstead, Michael Barrow, Ray Lewis, Dan Morgan, Twan Russell, Darrin Smith, Nate Webster
Defensive Backs: Robert Bailey, Al Blades, Delvin Brown, Earl Little, Ryan McNeil, Leonard Myers, Duane Starks, Darryl Williams
Kicker: Jeff Feagles

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

Quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Todd Collins, Scott Dreisbach, Elvis Grbac, Brian Griese, Jim Harbaugh
Running Backs: Tim Biakabutuka, Anthony Thomas, Tyrone Wheatley
Receivers/Tight Ends: Derrick S. Alexander, Mark Campbell, Desmond Howard, Marcus Knight, Tony McGee, Jay Riemersma, Aaron Shea, Tai Streets, David Terrell, Amani Toomer, Jerame Tuman
Offensive Line: Jeff Backus, David Brandt, Aaron Gibson, Steve Hutchinson, Jon Jansen, Jon Runyan, Maurice Williams
Defensive Line: James Hall, Glen Steele, Josh Williams
Linebackers: Ian Gold, Tommy Hendricks, Dhani Jones, Sam Sword
Defensive Backs: Ty Law, DeWayne Patmon, Charles Woodson
Kicker: Jay Feely

TEXAS A & M AGGIES

Quarterback: Randy McCown
Running Backs: Detron Smith, Rodney Thomas
Receivers/Tight Ends: Dan Campbell, Chris Cole, Albert Connell, Robert Ferguson, Hunter Goodwin, Dante Hall
Offensive Line: Calvin Collins, Jerry Fontenot, Jason Mathews, Steve McKinney, Cameron Spikes, Rex Tucker, Richmond Webb
Defensive Line: Sam Adams, Ron Edwards, Ronald Flemons, Ed Jasper, Brandon Mitchell, Pat Williams
Linebackers: Jason Glenn, Warrick Holdman, Keith Mitchell, Dat Nguyen, William Thomas
Defensive Backs: Rich Coady, Aaron Glenn, Donovan Greer, Michael Jameson, Brandon Jennings, Ray Mickens, Jason Webster
Kicker: Shane Lechler

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

Quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Tee Martin
Running Backs: Shawn Bryson, Phillip Crosby, Charlie Garner, Jay Graham, Travis Henry, James Stewart
Receivers/Tight Ends: David Martin, Peerless Price, Cedrick Wilson
Offensive Line: Chad Clifton, Cosey Coleman, Bubba Miller, Jeff Smith, Trey Teague
Defensive Line: Johnathan Brown, Shane Burton, Shaun Ellis, Leonard Little, Darwin Walker, Steve White
Linebackers: Scott Galyon, Ray Thompson, Eric Westmoreland, Al Wilson
Defensive Backs: Dale Carter, Terry Fair, Dwayne Goodrich, Deon Grant, DeRon Jenkins, Dave Thomas
Kicker: Jeff Hall

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Quarterback: Kerry Collins
Running Backs: Richie Anderson, Ki-Jana Carter, Sam Gash, Kenny Watson, John Jon Witman
Receivers/Tight Ends: Kyle Brady, Bobby Engram, Joe Jurevicius, O.J. McDuffie, Tony Stewart
Offensive Line: Roger Duffy, Jeff Hartings, Kareem McKenzie, Marco Rivera, Dave Szott, Floyd Wedderburn, Steve Wisniewski
Defensive Line: Courtney Brown, Tyoka Jackson, Brandon Noble, Brad Scioli
Linebackers: LaVar Arrington, Terry Killens, Justin Kurpeikis, Jim Nelson, Brandon Short
Defensive Backs: Joe Jue Bhawoh, James Boyd, David Macklin, Kim Herring
Kicker: Brett Conway

USC TROJANS

Quarterbacks: Rob Johnson, Rodney Peete
Running Back: Chad Morton
Receivers/Tight Ends: Brad Banta, Curtis Conway, Windrell Hayes, Keyshawn Johnson, Johnnie Morton, Larry Parker, R. Jay Soward
Offensive Line: Tony Boselli, Travis Claridge, Derrick Deese, Bruce Matthews, Matt Willig
Defensive Line: Willie McGinest, Darrell Russell
Linebackers: Chris Claiborne, Zeke Moreno, Junior Seau, Markus Steele, Brian Williams
Defensive Backs: Rashard Cook, David Gibson, Brian Kelly, Sammy Knight, Daylon McCutcheon, Ifeanyi Ohalete, Jason Sehorn

First Round:
University of Southern California vs. Florida State University

FSU Seminoles 30, USC Trojans 14

In the end, the Seminoles' quickness won out and sent the Trojans' passing game limping home. Florida State's balanced talent on offense and defense prevailed over the individual USC heroics of linebacker Junior Seau and quarterback Rob Johnson. Johnson littered the field with 47 passes, racking up 418 yards for USC. The Trojans even overcame wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson's fumble on the first play from scrimmage and led, 14-13, at halftime.

But the Trojans couldn't fight off a swarming Seminoles defense in the second half. Florida State got interceptions from four different backs and erased the halftime deficit to win, 30-14.

While amassing 483 total yards, USC committed five turnovers. Meanwhile, Florida State-cum-Carolina Panthers quarterback Chris Weinke passed for just 164 yards (12-for-24) but didn't throw any interceptions. The turning point came in the third quarter, when Florida State's Warrick Dunn broke off a 64-yard touchdown run that gave the Seminoles a 20-14 lead. They never looked back.

Seau made a game-high 15 tackles for USC. Leroy Butler, a 12-year veteran, led a balanced defensive effort for Florida State with 12 tackles.

 


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